Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.199982 21.911102 23.756714 25.905166 28.349886 31.060036 34.312417
2025-08-31 17.301072 19.605095 22.258772 25.578722 29.675436 34.639820 41.230469
2025-09-07 15.299537 17.919982 21.094848 25.303506 30.862414 38.149057 48.781808
2025-09-14 13.870667 16.680072 20.226221 25.160031 32.072779 41.802460 57.345607
2025-09-21 12.700266 15.597112 19.376767 24.850962 32.918646 45.017444 66.059520
2025-09-28 12.175054 15.274083 19.457234 25.777064 35.615478 51.462152 81.952658
2025-10-05 11.400060 14.525425 18.850898 25.596610 36.552533 55.240079 94.409510
2025-10-12 10.769056 13.912531 18.361959 25.505719 37.578148 59.344438 109.116072
2025-10-19 10.330615 13.529701 18.160352 25.817398 39.301142 65.099760 130.186073
2025-10-26 9.825231 13.007477 17.696571 25.637211 40.104073 69.220476 149.462389
2025-11-02 9.355900 12.503577 17.215010 25.364731 40.678060 72.988299 170.092902
2025-11-09 9.001055 12.145857 16.929409 25.388770 41.812371 78.293827 199.406356
2025-11-16 8.612433 11.720304 16.515448 25.164622 42.464291 82.787019 230.517806
2025-11-23 8.260053 11.330673 16.132534 24.959127 43.132212 87.577033 268.304316
2025-11-30 7.935470 10.965853 15.764384 24.742759 43.745725 92.460436 313.241129
2025-12-07 7.655873 10.656239 15.466185 24.626527 44.564173 98.239865 372.614834
2025-12-14 7.368277 10.318468 15.097493 24.337260 44.940032 102.870740 434.816023
2025-12-21 7.300060 10.329479 15.325275 25.240312 48.314676 118.566720 625.308740
2025-12-28 7.065039 10.054951 15.035267 25.067619 49.000016 125.424492 768.405125
2026-01-04 6.859194 9.818625 14.798000 24.980518 49.896075 133.566145 974.820810
2026-01-11 6.723439 9.692198 14.748973 25.283337 51.893064 147.261305 1391.389222
2026-01-18 6.529077 9.457949 14.489556 25.108792 52.547847 155.708499 1830.668478
2026-01-25 6.334359 9.214941 14.200701 24.844565 52.908976 163.143592 2407.609592